GUEST OPINION BY DR. MARK BROWN, CEO OF WEST HOUSTON ASSISTANCE MINISTRIES – As of March 4, the U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on nearly all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures are expected to raise food prices nationwide, disproportionately affecting low-income households and increasing food insecurity, particularly in states with high poverty rates. Social agencies, food banks, and pantries will face heightened demand for food assistance, higher operational costs, and strained donation resources.
Tariffs function as a tax on consumers, leading to higher grocery prices. For instance, a 25% tariff could result in an equivalent rise in food costs. This increase disproportionately affects low-income households, which already allocate a large share of their income to food. Food insecurity has risen from 12.8% in 2022 to 13.5% in 2023, with some states experiencing the highest rates in the nation. Tariffs on Mexican imports will further drive up prices of staple foods, while retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products will negatively impact American farmers, leading to broader economic repercussions.
Food banks and social service organizations will likely see increased demand while facing rising food procurement and transportation costs. Fewer individual and corporate donations may further strain resources.
Historical Context
The United States previously imposed tariffs on major trading partners, notably beginning in 2018. The Trump administration invoked Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing national security concerns, leading to duties on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) imports from countries including Mexico, Canada, and the European Union. Additionally, Section 301 tariffs targeted a broad spectrum of Chinese goods, addressing issues such as unfair trade practices and intellectual property violations. These measures affected over $360 billion in Chinese exports to the United States, initiating a prolonged trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies.
In retaliation, major trading partners — including Canada, China, and Mexico — imposed counter-tariffs on U.S. exports. These countermeasures targeted sectors designed to exert economic and political pressure on the U.S. administration, notably agricultural and food products such as soybeans, pork, dairy, and sorghum. The impact on American farmers and agribusinesses was substantial, with estimated losses in U.S. agricultural export revenue reaching $26 billion to $27 billion by the end of 2019.
The continuation of these trade barriers, coupled with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and inflation, contributed to rising food costs and increasing food insecurity across the U.S. Understanding this history is crucial for comprehending the impact of tariffs on food prices and hunger trends, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Effects on U.S. Food Prices and Food Insecurity
Tariffs function as a tax on consumers, leading to increased prices for food and other goods. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2025) suggests that the combined tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada could raise U.S. consumer prices on everyday goods by up to 2.6%. Economic analysts estimate that a 25% tariff on imports can cause an almost immediate 25% increase in related grocery prices if fully passed through.
These rising food costs disproportionately impact low-income households, which allocate a larger portion of their income toward groceries than wealthier households. A study by American Progress Action (2025) found that tariffs imposed in 2018 and 2019 effectively increased annual food costs by about $90 for the average household. However, this impact was felt most acutely by those struggling to afford food, contributing to a higher demand for food assistance programs.
Cascading Effects on Assistance Programs
Food banks and government assistance programs face heightened demand as grocery prices increase. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which helps low-income families afford food, is indexed to inflation but does not always keep pace with rapid price increases. Additionally, organizations such as Feeding America report that food banks nationwide serve more people while struggling with rising costs to procure food.
Overall, tariffs contribute to a chain reaction that extends far beyond the original intent of trade policy. While tariffs are often justified to protect domestic industries, their unintended consequence of increasing food prices has worsened food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable populations. Without interventions — such as targeted exemptions for essential food items or policy measures to support low-income consumers — tariffs risk exacerbating economic inequality and deepening hunger across the United States.
Implications for Food Banks
Organizations that provide food assistance will face increased demand as food insecurity rises, while grappling with higher operational costs and reduced donations.
Rising Demand for Food Assistance
Food insecurity rates continue to climb, leading to a greater need for food assistance from nonprofit organizations. Historically, food banks and pantries have reported significant surges in demand whenever food costs spike, particularly among low-income workers, single-parent households, and seniors on fixed incomes. Rising grocery prices mean that food assistance recipients may need support for longer periods, deepening financial instability.
Higher Costs for Food Procurement
Food banks rely on purchasing staple goods in bulk to supplement donations, but tariffs could make this practice significantly more expensive. The cost of fresh produce, dairy, meat and packaged staples is expected to rise, reducing the amount of food that can be distributed. Studies indicate that even a 10% increase in food prices can severely impact food banks’ purchasing power, forcing difficult choices between maintaining quantity and quality in food distribution.
Greater Strain on Charitable Donations
Nonprofits rely heavily on food and financial donations to sustain operations. However, as grocery prices rise, individual donors may struggle to contribute food and financial donations, reducing available resources. Families who once donated regularly may now face food insecurity themselves, further decreasing donation levels.
The Need for Policy Advocacy
Given the significant impact of tariffs on food security, social agencies and food banks may need to engage in policy discussions to advocate for trade policies that do not disproportionately harm low-income communities. Key advocacy efforts could include:
Exempting Essential Food Items from Tariffs — Lobbying policymakers to exclude staple food imports from tariff increases to prevent additional strain on food assistance programs.
Expanding Support for Federal Nutrition Assistance Programs — Advocating for increased funding for programs such as SNAP and WIC to help offset rising food costs for low-income households.
Investing in Local and Regional Food Systems — Encouraging policies that support local agriculture and sustainable food production to reduce dependency on imported goods and enhance food security.
In conclusion, tariffs that increase food costs have a cascading effect, worsening public health, limiting educational outcomes, and restricting economic mobility, ultimately reinforcing systemic disparities. Addressing these challenges requires a multi-pronged approach that includes policy reforms, community-based interventions, and a commitment to ensuring that no American family must choose between paying for food and meeting other essential needs. Social agencies, food banks, and pantries play a critical role in supporting those affected by these economic changes and advocating for a future where food security is accessible to all.
Dr. Mark Brown is CEO of West Houston Assistance Ministries. He can be reached at mark.brown@whamministries.org
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